Why randomness feels less random than it really is
Humans are excellent pattern-finders, which is useful until noise starts wearing a convincing disguise.
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Essays about evidence, noise and uncertainty.
A growing set of short statistical science articles. Some are explainers, some are arguments, and some are data-story ideas waiting to become full investigations.
The base rate is the quiet part of the calculation
Why rare events create surprisingly unintuitive conclusions.
Read articleWhat a p-value can and cannot tell you
Statistical significance without the ritualistic fog.
Read articleForecasts are not prophecies
Good forecasts are maps of uncertainty, not magic claims about the future.
Read articleCorrelation is a clue, not a confession
Why causal questions need structure, assumptions and humility.
Read articleThe chart changed the conclusion
Small design choices can make the same data feel boring, alarming or decisive.
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