The forecast as a map
A useful forecast should not pretend the future is a single line. It should show a central expectation, plausible ranges and the assumptions driving those ranges.
Why prediction intervals matter
Without an interval, a forecast can feel more precise than it is. The uncertainty is still there; it is just hidden from the reader. That is often worse than admitting it directly.
How to judge a forecast
Ask whether it is calibrated, whether it updates when new evidence arrives, whether it performs better than a simple baseline, and whether its errors are understandable.